Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
111.39 – 188.86
28%72%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
12 – 217
Prediction correct · off by 63.8 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.6 ±12.2
Season APEX 125.7Event APEX 30.64Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 89.21Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 51.2Event APEX -8.46Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 433.1 ±10.2
Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 74.44Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 39Event APEX 52.94Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 61.48Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 11269, 7674, 6690
68
/ 100 compatProjected
111.4 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 11269, 7674, 6690
Auto
24.7 23%
Teleop
55.5 51%
Endgame
27.9 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4909, 10138, 8724
88
/ 100 compatProjected
188.9 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 4909, 10138, 8724
Auto
33.2 18%
Teleop
110.8 59%
Endgame
44.1 23%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.04
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score111.4pts
Blue projected score188.9pts
Red win probability28%
Event bonus sample166alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 55%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -77.5
- Score range
- 89–211
- Upset likelihood
- 28%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
308.6Season APEX433.1
24.7Auto33.2
55.5Teleop110.8
27.9Endgame44.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 1 | 58 |
| teleop | 8 | 119 |
| endgame | 3 | 40 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 12 | 217 |
Result
Final score
12 – 217
Prediction correct · off by 63.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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