Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
567.95 – 561.33
52%48%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
757 – 620
Prediction correct · off by 123.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 869.8 ±8.7
Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 209.76Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 168.89Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 189.3Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 872.4 ±9.3
Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 173.26Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 177.66Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 210.41Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 604, 148, 3256
77
/ 100 compatProjected
568 pts
~2.0 RP (championship)
Teams: 604, 148, 3256
Auto
117.6 21%
Teleop
316.9 56%
Endgame
128.9 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 38%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 195, 2052, 9408
77
/ 100 compatProjected
561.3 pts
~2.0 RP (championship)
Teams: 195, 2052, 9408
Auto
101.6 18%
Teleop
303.6 55%
Endgame
144.6 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 38%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.96
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score568pts
Blue projected score561.3pts
Red win probability52%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 61%, blue 67%
Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 31%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 6.6
- Score range
- 477–652
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
869.8Season APEX872.4
117.6Auto101.6
316.9Teleop303.6
128.9Endgame144.6
135Consistency134
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 135 | 142 |
| teleop | 357 | 342 |
| endgame | 260 | 136 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 757 | 620 |
Result
Final score
757 – 620
Prediction correct · off by 123.9 pts
Match videos
Watch right here, no need to leave the page.