Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

811.09 – 576.19

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

780 – 533

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 957.2 ±8.1

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 391.75Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 154.98Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 264.36Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 869.8 ±8.7

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 212.35Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 172.04Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 191.8Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2910, 868, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

811.1 pts

~3.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 2910, 868, 2046

Auto

118.8 15%

Teleop

461.1 57%

Endgame

222.7 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 604, 148, 3256

/ 100 compat

Projected

576.2 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 604, 148, 3256

Auto

122.5 21%

Teleop

317.0 55%

Endgame

138.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.96 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score811.1pts

Blue projected score576.2pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 234.9
Score range: 492–895
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1313 vs event baseline 463.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

957.2Season APEX869.8

118.8Auto122.5

461.1Teleop317

222.7Endgame138.3

142Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	174	99
teleop	426	314
endgame	180	90
foul	0	30
total	780	533

Result

Final score

780 – 533

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 pts

Match videos

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