Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

544.23 – 507.58

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

617 – 645

Prediction missed · off by 105.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 859.6 ±8.7

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 148.65Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 167.54Rank 33Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 228.04Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 801.1 ±9.3

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 155.05Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 154Rank 54Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 198.53Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 599, 687, 1796

/ 100 compat

Projected

544.2 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 599, 687, 1796

Auto

120.2 22%

Teleop

308.5 56%

Endgame

117.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 930, 180, 1833

/ 100 compat

Projected

507.6 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 930, 180, 1833

Auto

111.1 22%

Teleop

287.4 57%

Endgame

104.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.38 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score544.2pts

Blue projected score507.6pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.7
Score range: 425–627
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1262 vs event baseline 462.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

859.6Season APEX801.1

120.2Auto111.1

308.5Teleop287.4

117.9Endgame104.6

138Consistency169

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	107
teleop	366	334
endgame	149	204
foul	0	0
total	617	645

Result

Final score

617 – 645

Prediction missed · off by 105.1 pts

Match videos

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