Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
635.25 – 650.28
45%55%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
552 – 481
Prediction missed · off by 126.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 835.8 ±8.1
Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 221.2Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 234.32Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 179.73Rank 44Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 887.5 ±9.8
Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 199.95Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 235.73Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 214.6Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 695, 1540, 6647
85
/ 100 compatProjected
635.3 pts
~2.0 RP (championship)
Teams: 695, 1540, 6647
Auto
118.2 19%
Teleop
332.9 53%
Endgame
173.0 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 70%
Supercharged: 42%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5736, 4400, 6036
86
/ 100 compatProjected
650.3 pts
~2.3 RP (championship)
Teams: 5736, 4400, 6036
Auto
121.5 19%
Teleop
355.6 55%
Endgame
167.2 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 70%
Supercharged: 42%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.05 · Blue 2.26
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score635.3pts
Blue projected score650.3pts
Red win probability45%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 70%, blue 76%
Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 39%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -15
- Score range
- 552–733
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
835.8Season APEX887.5
118.2Auto121.5
332.9Teleop355.6
173Endgame167.2
168Consistency159
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 129 | 146 |
| teleop | 269 | 242 |
| endgame | 149 | 78 |
| foul | 5 | 15 |
| total | 552 | 481 |
Result
Final score
552 – 481
Prediction missed · off by 126.3 pts
Match videos
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