Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
688.47 – 542.71
86%14%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
642 – 511
Prediction correct · off by 39.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 933.8 ±9.3
Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 273.43Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 246.35Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 168.69Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 872.4 ±9.3
Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 164.92Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 174.47Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 203.32Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 973, 9128, 2996
89
/ 100 compatProjected
688.5 pts
~2.8 RP (championship)
Teams: 973, 9128, 2996
Auto
122.0 18%
Teleop
387.0 57%
Endgame
166.4 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 65%
Supercharged: 40%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 195, 2052, 9408
76
/ 100 compatProjected
542.7 pts
~1.3 RP (championship)
Teams: 195, 2052, 9408
Auto
109.5 21%
Teleop
287.3 54%
Endgame
131.5 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 65%
Supercharged: 40%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.79 · Blue 1.28
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score688.5pts
Blue projected score542.7pts
Red win probability86%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 65%, blue 67%
Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 31%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 145.8
- Score range
- 460–771
- Upset likelihood
- 14%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
933.8Season APEX872.4
122Auto109.5
387Teleop287.3
166.4Endgame131.5
160Consistency129
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 120 | 66 |
| teleop | 339 | 264 |
| endgame | 183 | 181 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 642 | 511 |
Result
Final score
642 – 511
Prediction correct · off by 39.1 pts
Match videos
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