Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

536.02 – 494.92

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

685 – 524

Prediction correct · off by 89 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 869.8 ±8.7

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 197.37Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 162.2Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 176.45Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 801.1 ±9.3

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 148.1Rank 54Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 153.35Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 193.47Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 604, 148, 3256

/ 100 compat

Projected

536 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 604, 148, 3256

Auto

114.7 21%

Teleop

287.4 53%

Endgame

139.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 180, 930, 1833

/ 100 compat

Projected

494.9 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 180, 930, 1833

Auto

119.2 24%

Teleop

277.9 57%

Endgame

92.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score536pts

Blue projected score494.9pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.1
Score range: 412–619
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1209 vs event baseline 459.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

869.8Season APEX801.1

114.7Auto119.2

287.4Teleop277.9

139.4Endgame92.1

130Consistency166

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	144	87
teleop	400	301
endgame	131	136
foul	10	0
total	685	524

Result

Final score

685 – 524

Prediction correct · off by 89 pts

Match videos

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