Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

670.54 – 574.69

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

457 – 478

Prediction missed · off by 155.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 933.8 ±9.3

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 266.7Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 244.81Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 159.03Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 801.1 ±9.3

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 174.06Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 178.32Rank 54Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 222.31Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 973, 9128, 2996

/ 100 compat

Projected

670.5 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 973, 9128, 2996

Auto

112.5 17%

Teleop

363.7 55%

Endgame

182.2 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 930, 180, 1833

/ 100 compat

Projected

574.7 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 930, 180, 1833

Auto

122.7 21%

Teleop

314.5 55%

Endgame

134.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.6 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score670.5pts

Blue projected score574.7pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.8
Score range: 490–756
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 935 vs event baseline 472.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

933.8Season APEX801.1

112.5Auto122.7

363.7Teleop314.5

182.2Endgame134.2

159Consistency144

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	134	107
teleop	250	224
endgame	73	147
foul	0	0
total	457	478

Result

Final score

457 – 478

Prediction missed · off by 155.1 pts

Match videos

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