Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

553.68 – 600.4

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

699 – 585

Prediction missed · off by 80.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 801.1 ±9.3

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 171.14Rank 54Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 167.2Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 215.34Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 869.8 ±8.7

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 220.97Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 178.14Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 201.29Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 180, 930, 1833

/ 100 compat

Projected

553.7 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 180, 930, 1833

Auto

117.6 21%

Teleop

301.8 55%

Endgame

131.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 604, 148, 3256

/ 100 compat

Projected

600.4 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 604, 148, 3256

Auto

120.3 20%

Teleop

324.4 54%

Endgame

150.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.51 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score553.7pts

Blue projected score600.4pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.7
Score range: 469–685
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1284 vs event baseline 470.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

801.1Season APEX869.8

117.6Auto120.3

301.8Teleop324.4

131.3Endgame150.9

154Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	152	152
teleop	388	369
endgame	154	39
foul	5	25
total	699	585

Result

Final score

699 – 585

Prediction missed · off by 80.4 pts

Match videos

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