Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
803.43 – 684.77
81%19%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
688 – 598
Prediction correct · off by 101.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 957.2 ±8.1
Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 152.73Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 389.53Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 348Event APEX 261.17Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 933.8 ±9.3
Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 271.45Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 249.61Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 163.71Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 868, 2910, 2046
87
/ 100 compatProjected
803.4 pts
~2.7 RP (championship)
Teams: 868, 2910, 2046
Auto
129.7 16%
Teleop
453.3 57%
Endgame
213.8 27%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 65%
Supercharged: 39%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 973, 9128, 2996
87
/ 100 compatProjected
684.8 pts
~1.4 RP (championship)
Teams: 973, 9128, 2996
Auto
110.9 16%
Teleop
379.5 56%
Endgame
183.7 27%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 65%
Supercharged: 39%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.69 · Blue 1.44
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score803.4pts
Blue projected score684.8pts
Red win probability81%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 65%, blue 65%
Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 40%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 118.7
- Score range
- 600–888
- Upset likelihood
- 19%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
957.2Season APEX933.8
129.7Auto110.9
453.3Teleop379.5
213.8Endgame183.7
135Consistency154
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 125 | 121 |
| teleop | 349 | 285 |
| endgame | 209 | 172 |
| foul | 5 | 20 |
| total | 688 | 598 |
Result
Final score
688 – 598
Prediction correct · off by 101.1 pts
Match videos
Watch right here, no need to leave the page.