Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

607.67 – 537.41

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

626 – 636

Prediction missed · off by 58.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 835.8 ±8.1

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 211.37Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 227.23Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 169.07Rank 44Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 801.1 ±9.3

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 161.45Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 166.14Rank 54Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 209.82Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 695, 1540, 6647

/ 100 compat

Projected

607.7 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 695, 1540, 6647

Auto

119.5 20%

Teleop

309.7 52%

Endgame

167.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 930, 180, 1833

/ 100 compat

Projected

537.4 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 930, 180, 1833

Auto

110.9 21%

Teleop

297.9 56%

Endgame

125.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.55 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score607.7pts

Blue projected score537.4pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.3
Score range: 453–692
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1262 vs event baseline 468.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

835.8Season APEX801.1

119.5Auto110.9

309.7Teleop297.9

167.1Endgame125.1

176Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	154	151
teleop	358	324
endgame	104	161
foul	10	0
total	626	636

Result

Final score

626 – 636

Prediction missed · off by 58.5 pts

Match videos

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