Qualification · Qualification 97

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

461.59 – 465.52

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

436 – 434

Prediction missed · off by 28.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 772.5 ±9.3

1108Panther Robotics

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 127.48Rank 58Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 230.9Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 103.21Rank 35Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 817.2 ±11.4

5948PrepaTec - Lebotics

Season APEX 338.5Event APEX 96.64Rank 14Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 258.87Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 110.01Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1108, 948, 4099

/ 100 compat

Projected

461.6 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 1108, 948, 4099

Auto

88.7 20%

Teleop

214.0 48%

Endgame

147.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5948, 1540, 233

/ 100 compat

Projected

465.5 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 5948, 1540, 233

Auto

69.7 15%

Teleop

253.0 56%

Endgame

128.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score461.6pts

Blue projected score465.5pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.9
Score range: 380–548
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 870 vs event baseline 455.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

772.5Season APEX817.2

88.7Auto69.7

214Teleop253

147.2Endgame128.2

170Consistency166

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	83
teleop	208	206
endgame	126	135
foul	0	10
total	436	434

Result

Final score

436 – 434

Prediction missed · off by 28.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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