Qualification · Qualification 95

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

533.2 – 389.89

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

402 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 122 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 745.6 ±9.8

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 177.35Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 131.38Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 224.47Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 821.2 ±18

10935Krono

Provisional

Season APEX 260.5Event APEX 117.08Rank 70Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 150.44Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 122.37Rank 30Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3966, 3005, 2052

/ 100 compat

Projected

533.2 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 3966, 3005, 2052

Auto

89.2 17%

Teleop

298.0 58%

Endgame

124.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10935, 6436, 4590

/ 100 compat

Projected

389.9 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 10935, 6436, 4590

Auto

56.5 15%

Teleop

217.4 58%

Endgame

102.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.73 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score533.2pts

Blue projected score389.9pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 143.3
Score range: 308–615
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 679 vs event baseline 457.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

745.6Season APEX821.2

89.2Auto56.5

298Teleop217.4

124.8Endgame102.5

133Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	56
teleop	213	140
endgame	101	66
foul	5	15
total	402	277

Result

Final score

402 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 122 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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