Qualification · Qualification 90

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

468.17 – 495.08

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

440 – 592

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 729.6 ±10.5

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 270.03Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11463SHC Robotics

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 87.67Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 110.47Rank 54Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 900.1 ±11.4

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 276.92Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 140.2Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6352LAUNCH TEAM

A+

Season APEX 294.5Event APEX 77.96Rank 66Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6036, 11463, 180

/ 100 compat

Projected

468.2 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 6036, 11463, 180

Auto

91.3 20%

Teleop

268.2 58%

Endgame

102.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 973, 599, 6352

/ 100 compat

Projected

495.1 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 973, 599, 6352

Auto

89.4 18%

Teleop

290.2 59%

Endgame

110.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.77 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score468.2pts

Blue projected score495.1pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.9
Score range: 386–577
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 1032 vs event baseline 452.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

729.6Season APEX900.1

91.3Auto89.4

268.2Teleop290.2

102.4Endgame110.4

181Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	121	112
teleop	245	329
endgame	74	151
foul	0	0
total	440	592

Result

Final score

440 – 592

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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