Qualification · Qualification 89

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

453.33 – 380.07

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

645 – 419

Prediction correct · off by 115.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 854.7 ±10.7

10291MUTUM-X

Season APEX 270.3Event APEX 79.8Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 253.61Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 119.92Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 671.5 ±10.5

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 218.11Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 64.09Rank 75Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 97.87Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10291, 9128, 4561

/ 100 compat

Projected

453.3 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 10291, 9128, 4561

Auto

113.0 25%

Teleop

244.5 54%

Endgame

94.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2996, 4253, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

380.1 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 2996, 4253, 9245

Auto

80.1 22%

Teleop

183.8 50%

Endgame

103.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.5 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score453.3pts

Blue projected score380.1pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.3
Score range: 299–534
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 1064 vs event baseline 452.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

854.7Season APEX671.5

113Auto80.1

244.5Teleop183.8

94.2Endgame103.1

162Consistency171

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	100
teleop	423	215
endgame	136	104
foul	0	0
total	645	419

Result

Final score

645 – 419

Prediction correct · off by 115.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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