Qualification · Qualification 88

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

419.74 – 451.84

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

545 – 400

Prediction missed · off by 88.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 767.7 ±8.7

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 212.07Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 164.89Rank 44Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 42.78Rank 52Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 864.2 ±11.2

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 257.04Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3354PrepaTec - TecDroid

Season APEX 237.3Event APEX 110.81Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1884Griffins

Season APEX 284.1Event APEX 83.99Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9408, 6647, 1807

/ 100 compat

Projected

419.7 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 9408, 6647, 1807

Auto

100.3 24%

Teleop

218.2 53%

Endgame

92.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1796, 3354, 1884

/ 100 compat

Projected

451.8 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1796, 3354, 1884

Auto

109.4 24%

Teleop

247.6 55%

Endgame

96.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.73 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score419.7pts

Blue projected score451.8pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 80%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.1
Score range: 339–533
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 945 vs event baseline 451.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

767.7Season APEX864.2

100.3Auto109.4

218.2Teleop247.6

92.2Endgame96.8

139Consistency180

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	124	111
teleop	267	199
endgame	149	90
foul	5	0
total	545	400

Result

Final score

545 – 400

Prediction missed · off by 88.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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