Qualification · Qualification 87

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

332.52 – 455.61

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

390 – 558

Prediction correct · off by 79.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 779.5 ±14.8

10935Krono

Provisional

Season APEX 260.5Event APEX 116.09Rank 70Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 74.47Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 141.96Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 762.8 ±9.4

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 248.44Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 68.97Rank 29Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 138.2Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10935, 88, 3044

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.5 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 10935, 88, 3044

Auto

55.5 18%

Teleop

157.4 50%

Endgame

101.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1540, 2783, 6436

/ 100 compat

Projected

455.6 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 1540, 2783, 6436

Auto

98.0 22%

Teleop

255.4 57%

Endgame

91.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.29 · Blue 2.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score332.5pts

Blue projected score455.6pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -123.1
Score range: 252–537
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 948 vs event baseline 451.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

779.5Season APEX762.8

55.5Auto98

157.4Teleop255.4

101.9Endgame91.8

137Consistency155

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	97
teleop	190	344
endgame	106	117
foul	5	0
total	390	558

Result

Final score

390 – 558

Prediction correct · off by 79.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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