Qualification · Qualification 86

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

324 – 310.78

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

418 – 380

Prediction correct · off by 81.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 757.8 ±8.7

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 118.39Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 132.85Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 72.76Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 667.8 ±8.7

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 96.28Rank 35Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 79.35Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 135.15Rank 50Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 346, 148, 2586

/ 100 compat

Projected

324 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 346, 148, 2586

Auto

63.6 20%

Teleop

191.6 60%

Endgame

62.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4099, 9450, 4206

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.8 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4099, 9450, 4206

Auto

65.5 21%

Teleop

175.5 57%

Endgame

69.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score324pts

Blue projected score310.8pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.2
Score range: 230–405
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 798 vs event baseline 452.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

757.8Season APEX667.8

63.6Auto65.5

191.6Teleop175.5

62.1Endgame69.1

89Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	105
teleop	163	197
endgame	145	78
foul	15	0
total	418	380

Result

Final score

418 – 380

Prediction correct · off by 81.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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