Qualification · Qualification 85

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

411.41 – 364.33

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

287 – 310

Prediction missed · off by 89.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 744.4 ±13.9

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 160.57Rank 32Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5951Makers Assemble

Provisional

Season APEX 288.7Event APEX 118.32Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 132.52Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 855.5 ±18

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 133.73Rank 30Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1108Panther Robotics

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 143.61Rank 58Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 86.99Rank 43Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2713, 5951, 10553

/ 100 compat

Projected

411.4 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 2713, 5951, 10553

Auto

34.7 9%

Teleop

231.9 57%

Endgame

138.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4590, 1108, 1577

/ 100 compat

Projected

364.3 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4590, 1108, 1577

Auto

73.3 21%

Teleop

181.0 52%

Endgame

95.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.29 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score411.4pts

Blue projected score364.3pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.1
Score range: 282–493
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 597 vs event baseline 453.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

744.4Season APEX855.5

34.7Auto73.3

231.9Teleop181

138.8Endgame95.6

189Consistency187

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	40
teleop	125	142
endgame	70	113
foul	15	15
total	287	310

Result

Final score

287 – 310

Prediction missed · off by 89.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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