Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

440.32 – 403.18

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

620 – 575

Prediction correct · off by 175.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 676.3 ±9.9

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 39.37Rank 75Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 184.03Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 216.92Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 784.7 ±9.3

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 142.92Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 210.45Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 49.81Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4253, 1922, 5216

/ 100 compat

Projected

440.3 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 4253, 1922, 5216

Auto

79.4 18%

Teleop

254.2 57%

Endgame

109.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 341, 695, 9029

/ 100 compat

Projected

403.2 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 341, 695, 9029

Auto

80.3 20%

Teleop

243.6 59%

Endgame

87.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score440.3pts

Blue projected score403.2pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.1
Score range: 322–521
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 1195 vs event baseline 449.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

676.3Season APEX784.7

79.4Auto80.3

254.2Teleop243.6

109.2Endgame87.7

169Consistency192

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	118
teleop	356	317
endgame	200	140
foul	5	0
total	620	575

Result

Final score

620 – 575

Prediction correct · off by 175.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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