Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

345.36 – 456.51

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

359 – 498

Prediction correct · off by 27.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 659.4 ±9.9

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 114.73Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 58.51Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 172.12Rank 44Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 762 ±9.9

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 258.12Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 104.76Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 93.63Rank 73Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 233, 5414, 6647

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.4 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 233, 5414, 6647

Auto

57.6 16%

Teleop

168.1 48%

Endgame

123.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6036, 9245, 386

/ 100 compat

Projected

456.5 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 6036, 9245, 386

Auto

50.7 11%

Teleop

259.1 57%

Endgame

141.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.27 · Blue 2.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score345.4pts

Blue projected score456.5pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -111.1
Score range: 264–538
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 857 vs event baseline 449.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

659.4Season APEX762

57.6Auto50.7

168.1Teleop259.1

123.6Endgame141.4

147Consistency219

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	115
teleop	186	278
endgame	79	105
foul	10	0
total	359	498

Result

Final score

359 – 498

Prediction correct · off by 27.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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