Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

554.96 – 417.19

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

553 – 321

Prediction correct · off by 49.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 815.8 ±9.3

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 142.46Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 202.52Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 209.98Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 689.9 ±9.9

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 199.17Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 141.67Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 76.35Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 599, 5549, 2996

/ 100 compat

Projected

555 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 599, 5549, 2996

Auto

77.1 14%

Teleop

328.5 60%

Endgame

139.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10903, 195, 818

/ 100 compat

Projected

417.2 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 10903, 195, 818

Auto

74.0 18%

Teleop

231.5 57%

Endgame

99.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.86 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score555pts

Blue projected score417.2pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 44%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 137.8
Score range: 336–636
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 874 vs event baseline 449.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

815.8Season APEX689.9

77.1Auto74

328.5Teleop231.5

139.9Endgame99

149Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	118	53
teleop	295	175
endgame	125	93
foul	15	0
total	553	321

Result

Final score

553 – 321

Prediction correct · off by 49.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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