Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

589.42 – 390.07

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

605 – 439

Prediction correct · off by 32.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 833.5 ±10.5

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 225.11Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 111.12Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 253.19Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 706.9 ±9.8

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 90.68Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX 109.15Rank 60Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 190.24Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2052, 424, 9128

/ 100 compat

Projected

589.4 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 2052, 424, 9128

Auto

115.8 20%

Teleop

292.4 51%

Endgame

169.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3276, 6988, 604

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.1 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 3276, 6988, 604

Auto

84.9 23%

Teleop

176.5 48%

Endgame

106.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.9 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score589.4pts

Blue projected score390.1pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 199.3
Score range: 309–670
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 1044 vs event baseline 448.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

833.5Season APEX706.9

115.8Auto84.9

292.4Teleop176.5

169Endgame106.5

192Consistency149

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	169	92
teleop	242	215
endgame	179	132
foul	15	0
total	605	439

Result

Final score

605 – 439

Prediction correct · off by 32.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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