Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

422.58 – 519.39

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

271 – 543

Prediction correct · off by 87.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 799.6 ±12.4

6352LAUNCH TEAM

A+

Season APEX 294.5Event APEX 85.3Rank 66Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 162.37Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 174.91Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 780.3 ±8.7

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 132.81Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 134.08Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 252.5Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6352, 2194, 3044

/ 100 compat

Projected

422.6 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 6352, 2194, 3044

Auto

54.9 13%

Teleop

208.3 49%

Endgame

159.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 148, 10553, 1796

/ 100 compat

Projected

519.4 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 148, 10553, 1796

Auto

95.3 19%

Teleop

283.3 55%

Endgame

132.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.58 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score422.6pts

Blue projected score519.4pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96.8
Score range: 342–600
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 814 vs event baseline 447.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

799.6Season APEX780.3

54.9Auto95.3

208.3Teleop283.3

159.9Endgame132.4

158Consistency166

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	99
teleop	118	306
endgame	77	138
foul	20	0
total	271	543

Result

Final score

271 – 543

Prediction correct · off by 87.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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