Qualification · Qualification 70
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
243.92 – 253.44
47%53%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
191 – 404
Prediction correct · off by 101.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 729.7 ±11.2
Season APEX 284.1Event APEX 58.02Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 43.05Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 142.85Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 780.6 ±10.7
Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 167.38Rank 48Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 67.28Rank 35Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 270.3Event APEX 18.78Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1884, 9029, 3005
53
/ 100 compatProjected
243.9 pts
~1.8 RP (championship)
Teams: 1884, 9029, 3005
Auto
48.6 20%
Teleop
110.8 46%
Endgame
82.0 34%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 67%
Supercharged: 19%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8046, 4099, 10291
55
/ 100 compatProjected
253.4 pts
~2.1 RP (championship)
Teams: 8046, 4099, 10291
Auto
68.1 27%
Teleop
119.9 47%
Endgame
64.8 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 67%
Supercharged: 19%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.82 · Blue 2.12
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score243.9pts
Blue projected score253.4pts
Red win probability47%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 67%, blue 76%
Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 28%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -9.5
- Score range
- 163–334
- Upset likelihood
- 47%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
729.7Season APEX780.6
48.6Auto68.1
110.8Teleop119.9
82Endgame64.8
210Consistency181
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 78 | 32 |
| teleop | 93 | 216 |
| endgame | 20 | 151 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 191 | 404 |
Result
Final score
191 – 404
Prediction correct · off by 101.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
first-unavailable
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