Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

379.02 – 353.73

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

338 – 549

Prediction missed · off by 118.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 696.3 ±9.9

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 113.69Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 124.18Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 141.15Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 810.7 ±14.3

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 103.69Rank 30Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 71.36Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 178.68Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 424, 9245, 7160

/ 100 compat

Projected

379 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 424, 9245, 7160

Auto

21.1 6%

Teleop

193.3 53%

Endgame

152.5 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4590, 818, 2996

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.7 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 4590, 818, 2996

Auto

70.6 21%

Teleop

154.0 46%

Endgame

113.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score379pts

Blue projected score353.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.3
Score range: 273–460
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 887 vs event baseline 449.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

696.3Season APEX810.7

21.1Auto70.6

193.3Teleop154

152.5Endgame113.5

195Consistency205

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	83
teleop	122	361
endgame	155	100
foul	0	5
total	338	549

Result

Final score

338 – 549

Prediction missed · off by 118.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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