Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

450.28 – 546

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

515 – 508

Prediction missed · off by 51.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 753.3 ±9.3

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 146.97Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 70.03Rank 52Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 233.28Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 816.8 ±9.5

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 198.56Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 189.86Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 157.58Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6436, 1807, 6036

/ 100 compat

Projected

450.3 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 6436, 1807, 6036

Auto

80.7 19%

Teleop

217.1 51%

Endgame

129.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10903, 2046, 341

/ 100 compat

Projected

546 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 10903, 2046, 341

Auto

87.1 16%

Teleop

277.3 52%

Endgame

168.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.45 · Blue 2.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score450.3pts

Blue projected score546pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95.7
Score range: 369–627
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 1023 vs event baseline 448.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

753.3Season APEX816.8

80.7Auto87.1

217.1Teleop277.3

129Endgame168.1

178Consistency163

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	114
teleop	290	269
endgame	128	125
foul	0	0
total	515	508

Result

Final score

515 – 508

Prediction missed · off by 51.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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