Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

647.52 – 486.51

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

570 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 118 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 889.4 ±8.1

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 156.56Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 220.49Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 270.47Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 710.9 ±9.3

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 115.78Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 122.56Rank 33Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 248.17Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 599, 604, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

647.5 pts

~3.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 599, 604, 1540

Auto

125.7 20%

Teleop

369.4 57%

Endgame

148.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10979, 687, 9408

/ 100 compat

Projected

486.5 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 10979, 687, 9408

Auto

89.0 18%

Teleop

300.4 62%

Endgame

98.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.98 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score647.5pts

Blue projected score486.5pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 47%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 161
Score range: 406–729
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 898 vs event baseline 448.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

889.4Season APEX710.9

125.7Auto89

369.4Teleop300.4

148.3Endgame98.2

132Consistency183

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	123	63
teleop	279	173
endgame	168	92
foul	0	0
total	570	328

Result

Final score

570 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 118 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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