Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

472.89 – 431.03

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

461 – 605

Prediction missed · off by 92.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 740.7 ±8.7

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 217.07Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 164.19Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 91.63Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 772.6 ±9.8

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 67.69Rank 54Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 155.7Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 207.64Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5216, 930, 88

/ 100 compat

Projected

472.9 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 5216, 930, 88

Auto

67.6 14%

Teleop

294.4 62%

Endgame

114.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 180, 5549, 2052

/ 100 compat

Projected

431 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 180, 5549, 2052

Auto

98.1 23%

Teleop

236.2 56%

Endgame

90.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.23 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score472.9pts

Blue projected score431pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.9
Score range: 351–553
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 1066 vs event baseline 447.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

740.7Season APEX772.6

67.6Auto98.1

294.4Teleop236.2

114.3Endgame90.4

148Consistency157

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	114
teleop	180	325
endgame	199	166
foul	0	0
total	461	605

Result

Final score

461 – 605

Prediction missed · off by 92.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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