Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

511.92 – 444.1

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

359 – 457

Prediction missed · off by 82.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 778.9 ±9.3

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 155.67Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 161.2Rank 49Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 195.05Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 909.3 ±9.3

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 261.17Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 57.86Rank 29Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 125.07Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3256, 2370, 3966

/ 100 compat

Projected

511.9 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 3256, 2370, 3966

Auto

126.4 25%

Teleop

298.0 58%

Endgame

86.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9128, 2783, 346

/ 100 compat

Projected

444.1 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 9128, 2783, 346

Auto

96.6 23%

Teleop

288.9 69%

Endgame

31.2 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.42 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score511.9pts

Blue projected score444.1pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.8
Score range: 363–593
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 816 vs event baseline 447.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

778.9Season APEX909.3

126.4Auto96.6

298Teleop288.9

86.8Endgame31.2

151Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	126
teleop	197	237
endgame	69	89
foul	0	5
total	359	457

Result

Final score

359 – 457

Prediction missed · off by 82.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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