Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

323.91 – 342.44

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

515 – 387

Prediction missed · off by 117.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 833.2 ±11.7

10291MUTUM-X

Season APEX 270.3Event APEX -8.98Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 133.25Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 199.64Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 781.1 ±13.9

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 137.52Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 132.92Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5951Makers Assemble

Provisional

Season APEX 288.7Event APEX 72Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10291, 3044, 1833

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.9 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 10291, 3044, 1833

Auto

71.7 24%

Teleop

144.1 47%

Endgame

88.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8373, 2067, 5951

/ 100 compat

Projected

342.4 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 8373, 2067, 5951

Auto

77.1 22%

Teleop

160.2 47%

Endgame

106.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.91 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score323.9pts

Blue projected score342.4pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.5
Score range: 243–423
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 902 vs event baseline 447.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

833.2Season APEX781.1

71.7Auto77.1

144.1Teleop160.2

88.9Endgame106.8

173Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	89
teleop	269	209
endgame	124	89
foul	10	0
total	515	387

Result

Final score

515 – 387

Prediction missed · off by 117.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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