Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

393.47 – 403.25

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

545 – 400

Prediction missed · off by 77.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 763.7 ±8.7

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 42.1Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 225.95Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 125.42Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 867.7 ±11.2

1884Griffins

Season APEX 284.1Event APEX 68.97Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5736Kingsmen Robotics

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 200.96Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 133.32Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5414, 1796, 868

/ 100 compat

Projected

393.5 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 5414, 1796, 868

Auto

71.0 18%

Teleop

255.0 65%

Endgame

65.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1884, 5736, 195

/ 100 compat

Projected

403.3 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 1884, 5736, 195

Auto

73.7 18%

Teleop

207.7 52%

Endgame

117.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score393.5pts

Blue projected score403.3pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.8
Score range: 313–483
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 945 vs event baseline 446.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

763.7Season APEX867.7

71Auto73.7

255Teleop207.7

65Endgame117.6

214Consistency145

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	117
teleop	264	195
endgame	169	88
foul	0	0
total	545	400

Result

Final score

545 – 400

Prediction missed · off by 77.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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