Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

441.02 – 397.73

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

447 – 443

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 807.2 ±14.3

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 155.45Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5951Makers Assemble

Provisional

Season APEX 288.7Event APEX 133.92Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 151.65Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 674.8 ±8.8

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 64.8Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 106.2Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 226.73Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2194, 5951, 2996

/ 100 compat

Projected

441 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 2194, 5951, 2996

Auto

68.0 16%

Teleop

222.2 52%

Endgame

140.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9450, 9029, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

397.7 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 9450, 9029, 1540

Auto

87.6 22%

Teleop

219.7 56%

Endgame

87.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.27 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score441pts

Blue projected score397.7pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.3
Score range: 313–526
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 890 vs event baseline 472.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

807.2Season APEX674.8

68Auto87.6

222.2Teleop219.7

140.2Endgame87.8

133Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	97
teleop	213	267
endgame	155	74
foul	20	5
total	447	443

Result

Final score

447 – 443

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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