Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

422.41 – 387.82

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

447 – 469

Prediction missed · off by 52.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 904.6 ±16.2

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 239.31Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 86.21Rank 30Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6352LAUNCH TEAM

A+

Season APEX 294.5Event APEX 96.89Rank 66Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 683.9 ±9.3

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 131.28Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX 77.48Rank 60Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 179.06Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4400, 4590, 6352

/ 100 compat

Projected

422.4 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 4400, 4590, 6352

Auto

99.9 24%

Teleop

255.7 61%

Endgame

66.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4561, 6988, 695

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.8 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 4561, 6988, 695

Auto

54.4 14%

Teleop

239.5 63%

Endgame

84.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score422.4pts

Blue projected score387.8pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.6
Score range: 308–502
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 916 vs event baseline 446.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

904.6Season APEX683.9

99.9Auto54.4

255.7Teleop239.5

66.4Endgame84.6

191Consistency179

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	101
teleop	233	230
endgame	142	123
foul	20	15
total	447	469

Result

Final score

447 – 469

Prediction missed · off by 52.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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