Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

417.05 – 394.26

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

437 – 572

Prediction missed · off by 98.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 709.2 ±9.3

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 202.25Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1108Panther Robotics

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 75.46Rank 58Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 139.34Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 814.6 ±9.3

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 70.39Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 130.21Rank 48Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 193.66Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1922, 1108, 9450

/ 100 compat

Projected

417.1 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 1922, 1108, 9450

Auto

73.9 18%

Teleop

241.0 58%

Endgame

102.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3276, 8046, 6036

/ 100 compat

Projected

394.3 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 3276, 8046, 6036

Auto

54.9 15%

Teleop

181.9 51%

Endgame

121.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.11 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score417.1pts

Blue projected score394.3pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 80%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.8
Score range: 314–497
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 1009 vs event baseline 445.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

709.2Season APEX814.6

73.9Auto54.9

241Teleop181.9

102.7Endgame121.2

171Consistency219

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	99
teleop	205	309
endgame	152	164
foul	15	0
total	437	572

Result

Final score

437 – 572

Prediction missed · off by 98.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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