Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

510.49 – 385.52

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

448 – 460

Prediction missed · off by 68.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 724.9 ±9.3

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 111.32Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 267.49Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 131.68Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 693.6 ±15.6

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 86.12Rank 43Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 196.64Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 102.76Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9245, 973, 10979

/ 100 compat

Projected

510.5 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 9245, 973, 10979

Auto

104.3 20%

Teleop

278.9 54%

Endgame

134.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1577, 10903, 424

/ 100 compat

Projected

385.5 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 1577, 10903, 424

Auto

42.0 11%

Teleop

211.6 56%

Endgame

125.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.63 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score510.5pts

Blue projected score385.5pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125
Score range: 306–590
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 908 vs event baseline 445.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

724.9Season APEX693.6

104.3Auto42

278.9Teleop211.6

134.9Endgame125.4

156Consistency163

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	81
teleop	266	229
endgame	78	125
foul	30	25
total	448	460

Result

Final score

448 – 460

Prediction missed · off by 68.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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