Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

304.44 – 376.44

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

352 – 318

Prediction missed · off by 53 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 627.4 ±10.5

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 88.49Rank 35Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 172.97Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1902Exploding Bacon

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 42.98Rank 65Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 639.8 ±10.5

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 79.04Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 205.85Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11463SHC Robotics

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 91.55Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4099, 9067, 1902

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.4 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 4099, 9067, 1902

Auto

68.0 23%

Teleop

127.5 43%

Endgame

101.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 88, 3966, 11463

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.4 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 88, 3966, 11463

Auto

59.5 17%

Teleop

199.9 56%

Endgame

97.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.49 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score304.4pts

Blue projected score376.4pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72
Score range: 224–456
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 670 vs event baseline 444.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

627.4Season APEX639.8

68Auto59.5

127.5Teleop199.9

101Endgame97.1

183Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	46
teleop	177	191
endgame	105	81
foul	45	0
total	352	318

Result

Final score

352 – 318

Prediction missed · off by 53 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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