Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

328.98 – 454.75

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

367 – 393

Prediction correct · off by 49.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 737.6 ±9.3

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 36.53Rank 29Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 150.19Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 142.26Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 686.5 ±9.9

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 134.46Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 110.55Rank 33Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 209.74Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2783, 341, 10553

/ 100 compat

Projected

329 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 2783, 341, 10553

Auto

95.4 31%

Teleop

214.3 69%

Endgame

0.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 233, 687, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

454.8 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 233, 687, 930

Auto

72.3 16%

Teleop

251.3 55%

Endgame

130.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.47 · Blue 2.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score329pts

Blue projected score454.8pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -125.8
Score range: 249–535
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 760 vs event baseline 442.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

737.6Season APEX686.5

95.4Auto72.3

214.3Teleop251.3

0.9Endgame130.9

162Consistency204

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	43
teleop	236	225
endgame	46	125
foul	0	0
total	367	393

Result

Final score

367 – 393

Prediction correct · off by 49.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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