Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

298.87 – 294.59

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

439 – 456

Prediction missed · off by 150.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 768.4 ±9.3

1108Panther Robotics

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 80.23Rank 58Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 64.76Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 153.88Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 710.7 ±9.9

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 148.92Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 46.62Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 99.05Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1108, 346, 2194

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.9 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 1108, 346, 2194

Auto

73.0 26%

Teleop

175.5 63%

Endgame

31.6 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1922, 5414, 3044

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.6 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 1922, 5414, 3044

Auto

41.0 14%

Teleop

127.2 44%

Endgame

121.6 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.1 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score298.9pts

Blue projected score294.6pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.3
Score range: 215–379
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 895 vs event baseline 442.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

768.4Season APEX710.7

73Auto41

175.5Teleop127.2

31.6Endgame121.6

120Consistency156

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	100
teleop	215	254
endgame	155	102
foul	0	0
total	439	456

Result

Final score

439 – 456

Prediction missed · off by 150.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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