Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

385.38 – 447.96

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

242 – 519

Prediction correct · off by 107.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 696 ±11

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 113.69Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 114.26Rank 29Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 157.43Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 661.8 ±9.9

11463SHC Robotics

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 73.81Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 218.76Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 155.39Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10903, 2783, 3276

/ 100 compat

Projected

385.4 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 10903, 2783, 3276

Auto

87.1 23%

Teleop

215.5 58%

Endgame

70.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11463, 948, 4561

/ 100 compat

Projected

448 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 11463, 948, 4561

Auto

98.5 22%

Teleop

255.5 57%

Endgame

97.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.72 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score385.4pts

Blue projected score448pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.6
Score range: 300–533
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 761 vs event baseline 472.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

696Season APEX661.8

87.1Auto98.5

215.5Teleop255.5

70.9Endgame97.4

155Consistency146

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	81
teleop	111	283
endgame	48	140
foul	40	15
total	242	519

Result

Final score

242 – 519

Prediction correct · off by 107.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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