Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

263.6 – 257.7

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

511 – 449

Prediction correct · off by 219.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 789.4 ±14.8

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 80.27Rank 30Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 110.25Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 73.08Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 680.4 ±9.9

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 20.93Rank 75Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 149.86Rank 49Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 86.91Rank 48Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4590, 10903, 2067

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.6 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 4590, 10903, 2067

Auto

79.6 30%

Teleop

114.1 44%

Endgame

68.4 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4253, 2370, 8046

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.7 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 4253, 2370, 8046

Auto

68.5 28%

Teleop

119.3 48%

Endgame

59.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score263.6pts

Blue projected score257.7pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.9
Score range: 179–343
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 960 vs event baseline 441.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

789.4Season APEX680.4

79.6Auto68.5

114.1Teleop119.3

68.4Endgame59.3

113Consistency235

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	82
teleop	299	262
endgame	132	105
foul	15	0
total	511	449

Result

Final score

511 – 449

Prediction correct · off by 219.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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