Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

517.02 – 491.71

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

573 – 646

Prediction missed · off by 105.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 859.9 ±13.9

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 82.31Rank 43Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 198.02Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 236.69Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 875.7 ±9.3

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 185.84Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 181.32Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3354PrepaTec - TecDroid

Season APEX 237.3Event APEX 124.55Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1577, 1796, 5216

/ 100 compat

Projected

517 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 1577, 1796, 5216

Auto

126.0 24%

Teleop

300.5 58%

Endgame

94.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6036, 1833, 3354

/ 100 compat

Projected

491.7 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 6036, 1833, 3354

Auto

79.4 16%

Teleop

319.3 66%

Endgame

87.4 18%

Strengths

· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.39 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score517pts

Blue projected score491.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 44%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.3
Score range: 413–596
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1219 vs event baseline 437.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

859.9Season APEX875.7

126Auto79.4

300.5Teleop319.3

94.1Endgame87.4

125Consistency227

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	114
teleop	344	397
endgame	140	85
foul	0	50
total	573	646

Result

Final score

573 – 646

Prediction missed · off by 105.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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