Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

455.99 – 391.09

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

387 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 748.7 ±9.9

11463SHC Robotics

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 114.92Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 168.84Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 172.23Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 755.2 ±14.3

5951Makers Assemble

Provisional

Season APEX 288.7Event APEX 71.56Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 107.31Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 212.22Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11463, 9408, 195

/ 100 compat

Projected

456 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 11463, 9408, 195

Auto

49.1 11%

Teleop

234.2 54%

Endgame

154.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5951, 818, 2052

/ 100 compat

Projected

391.1 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 5951, 818, 2052

Auto

51.5 14%

Teleop

207.7 55%

Endgame

119.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.32 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score456pts

Blue projected score391.1pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.9
Score range: 312–535
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 772 vs event baseline 438.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

748.7Season APEX755.2

49.1Auto51.5

234.2Teleop207.7

154.1Endgame119.9

42Consistency153

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	75
teleop	209	122
endgame	78	188
foul	5	0
total	387	385

Result

Final score

387 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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