Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

413.75 – 628.03

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

380 – 567

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 750.3 ±9.3

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 103.53Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 220.41Rank 44Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 89.81Rank 54Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 954.3 ±8.8

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 201.29Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 254.76Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 171.98Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8373, 6647, 180

/ 100 compat

Projected

413.8 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 8373, 6647, 180

Auto

83.3 20%

Teleop

234.2 57%

Endgame

94.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2046, 604, 2996

/ 100 compat

Projected

628 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 2046, 604, 2996

Auto

107.8 18%

Teleop

317.7 53%

Endgame

176.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.15 · Blue 2.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score413.8pts

Blue projected score628pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -214.3
Score range: 335–707
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 947 vs event baseline 437.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

750.3Season APEX954.3

83.3Auto107.8

234.2Teleop317.7

94.3Endgame176.6

19Consistency202

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	110	104
teleop	183	267
endgame	72	181
foul	15	15
total	380	567

Result

Final score

380 – 567

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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