Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

243.75 – 451.88

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

416 – 419

Prediction correct · off by 102.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 663.5 ±9.9

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 100.18Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 55.8Rank 50Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 87.77Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 815.7 ±10.2

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 270.18Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 168.18Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10291MUTUM-X

Season APEX 270.3Event APEX 13.52Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 424, 4206, 868

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.8 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 424, 4206, 868

Auto

65.5 26%

Teleop

168.9 68%

Endgame

15.1 6%

Strengths

· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1540, 341, 10291

/ 100 compat

Projected

451.9 pts

~3.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 1540, 341, 10291

Auto

114.4 25%

Teleop

242.9 52%

Endgame

105.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.11 · Blue 3.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score243.8pts

Blue projected score451.9pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -208.1
Score range: 165–531
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 835 vs event baseline 437.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

663.5Season APEX815.7

65.5Auto114.4

168.9Teleop242.9

15.1Endgame105.7

254Consistency209

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	91
teleop	245	232
endgame	136	86
foul	5	10
total	416	419

Result

Final score

416 – 419

Prediction correct · off by 102.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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