Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

427.65 – 313.2

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

333 – 355

Prediction missed · off by 68.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 761.8 ±8.7

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 143.71Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 125.84Rank 35Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 158.1Rank 32Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 685.5 ±13.9

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 64.66Rank 52Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10935Krono

Provisional

Season APEX 260.5Event APEX 123.96Rank 70Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 124.58Rank 33Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9245, 4099, 2713

/ 100 compat

Projected

427.7 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 9245, 4099, 2713

Auto

109.3 25%

Teleop

228.8 53%

Endgame

95.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1807, 10935, 687

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.2 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 1807, 10935, 687

Auto

31.8 11%

Teleop

169.4 56%

Endgame

101.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.59 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score427.7pts

Blue projected score313.2pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114.5
Score range: 234–507
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 688 vs event baseline 440.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

761.8Season APEX685.5

109.3Auto31.8

228.8Teleop169.4

95.5Endgame101.5

141Consistency167

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	56
teleop	176	173
endgame	125	96
foul	0	30
total	333	355

Result

Final score

333 – 355

Prediction missed · off by 68.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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