Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

463.37 – 572.12

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

562 – 444

Prediction missed · off by 113.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 811 ±9.9

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 123.85Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 226.27Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 113.25Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 696.2 ±9.8

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 205.8Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 315.71Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 50.61Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5549, 9128, 233

/ 100 compat

Projected

463.4 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 5549, 9128, 233

Auto

120.5 26%

Teleop

235.5 50%

Endgame

112.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9067, 973, 9029

/ 100 compat

Projected

572.1 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 9067, 973, 9029

Auto

79.9 15%

Teleop

313.6 57%

Endgame

157.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.49 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score463.4pts

Blue projected score572.1pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.7
Score range: 384–651
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 1006 vs event baseline 438.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

811Season APEX696.2

120.5Auto79.9

235.5Teleop313.6

112.6Endgame157.1

196Consistency200

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	84
teleop	312	244
endgame	181	116
foul	15	0
total	562	444

Result

Final score

562 – 444

Prediction missed · off by 113.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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