Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

488.26 – 267.02

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

445 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 73.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 782.9 ±9.3

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 212.19Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 161.71Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1108Panther Robotics

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 114.36Rank 58Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 621.1 ±10.5

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 111.59Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 53.45Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 101.98Rank 73Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9408, 930, 1108

/ 100 compat

Projected

488.3 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 9408, 930, 1108

Auto

93.2 19%

Teleop

241.2 50%

Endgame

146.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3005, 10979, 386

/ 100 compat

Projected

267 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 3005, 10979, 386

Auto

52.5 21%

Teleop

149.1 58%

Endgame

53.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.73 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score488.3pts

Blue projected score267pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 221.2
Score range: 182–573
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 816 vs event baseline 472.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

782.9Season APEX621.1

93.2Auto52.5

241.2Teleop149.1

146.9Endgame53.6

175Consistency199

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	66
teleop	232	221
endgame	108	79
foul	15	5
total	445	371

Result

Final score

445 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 73.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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