Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

345.11 – 441.86

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

396 – 756

Prediction correct · off by 182.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 587.9 ±10.5

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 172.76Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 102.51Rank 73Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX 69.84Rank 60Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 803 ±9.3

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 108.23Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 117.24Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 216.39Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 930, 386, 6988

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.1 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 930, 386, 6988

Auto

56.7 17%

Teleop

213.7 65%

Endgame

56.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 599, 3966, 948

/ 100 compat

Projected

441.9 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 599, 3966, 948

Auto

77.4 18%

Teleop

261.5 61%

Endgame

90.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score345.1pts

Blue projected score441.9pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96.7
Score range: 267–520
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1152 vs event baseline 433.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

587.9Season APEX803

56.7Auto77.4

213.7Teleop261.5

56.3Endgame90.9

191Consistency191

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	131
teleop	255	445
endgame	115	180
foul	5	0
total	396	756

Result

Final score

396 – 756

Prediction correct · off by 182.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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