Qualification · Qualification 37
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
518.91 – 409.33
80%20%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
473 – 442
Prediction correct · off by 39.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 759.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 237.3Event APEX 139.93Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 227.03Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 151.95Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 764.2 ±9.8
Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 113.08Rank 48Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 183.45Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 112.8Rank 58Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3354, 2052, 148
72
/ 100 compatProjected
518.9 pts
~2.7 RP (championship)
Teams: 3354, 2052, 148
Auto
77.3 16%
Teleop
327.7 66%
Endgame
89.6 18%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 72%
Supercharged: 33%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8046, 5736, 1108
67
/ 100 compatProjected
409.3 pts
~1.5 RP (championship)
Teams: 8046, 5736, 1108
Auto
75.2 19%
Teleop
198.9 51%
Endgame
118.7 30%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 72%
Supercharged: 33%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.66 · Blue 1.46
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score518.9pts
Blue projected score409.3pts
Red win probability80%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 72%, blue 78%
Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 26%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 109.6
- Score range
- 331–597
- Upset likelihood
- 20%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
759.1Season APEX764.2
77.3Auto75.2
327.7Teleop198.9
89.6Endgame118.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 91 | 117 |
| teleop | 266 | 230 |
| endgame | 116 | 90 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 473 | 442 |
Result
Final score
473 – 442
Prediction correct · off by 39.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
first-unavailable
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